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USA Unemployment 9.9% In May 2010
by William M Wright BBA MBA -06-01-2010
Green shoots continue their slow growth in the spring of 2010 as unemployment fell from its 10.2% peak last year. But Unemployment is only 1/2 of the problem.
Underemployment Hit 20% in March.
One in five Americans working or wanting work are underemployed in March according to Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist for the Gallup's poll. Gallup's underemployment measure hit 20.0% on March 15 -- up from 19.7% two weeks earlier and 19.5% at the start of the year.
The findings underscore why Americans say the most important problem facing the nation today is jobs and unemployment. Gallup's underemployment measure is based on more than 20,000 phone interviews collected over a 30-day period and reported daily.
USA Unemployment Hits 10.2% In October
by William M Wright BBA MBA -11-05-09
The American unemployment rate surged to 10.2 percent in October, its highest level in 26 years, as the economy lost another 190,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday.
The nation’s jobless swelled to 15.7 million. Since late 2007, payroll employment has fallen by about 7.3 million. Only 1.8 million jobs were lost in the 2001 recession. So, this is 3 times worse. More than a third of the nation’s unemployed — 35.6% — have been out of work long-term, defined by the Labor Department as a period of 27 weeks or more — that's the highest proportion since World War II.
The jump into the realm of double-digit joblessness— provided a sobering reminder that, despite the apparent "technical" end of the Great Recession, economic expansion has yet to translate into jobs, leaving tens of millions of people still struggling. And many with a job are wondering if their next.
The labor situation is actually worse than what these figures and the 10.2% rate show. The government doesn't count as officially unemployed the so-called discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs -- which in October numbered 808,000, up from 484,000 a year earlier.
There also were 9.3 million people who reported they had little choice but to work part time because their hours had been cut or they could not find full-time jobs. If this group and discouraged workers are included, along with others on the fringe of the labor market, the nation's unemployment and underemployment rate in October was 17.5%.
The last time the jobless rate crossed double digits was during the recession and initial recovery period of the early 1980s. Then, unemployment hit 10.1% in September 1982 and stayed at or above that level, rising to a high of 10.8%, until June the following year.
This time around, unemployment has risen even faster and, by many analysts' and economists' predictions, could hold above 9% through 2010.
While it seems counter intuitive the stock market in 1982 was similar to 2009, as it also rose over 60% -even as unemployment was rising. Now let's hope the 2010 stock market is more like 2004 then 2002 market. Even, some market bulls find it hard to believe (with this recession dwarfing 2001) that we are at levels above DJIA 10,000.
U.S. recession seen likely to go through summer
Mon Apr 20, 2009
WASHINGTON (Reuters News) - A key gauge of future economic activity fell for the third month in a row in March, showing the recession may persist through the summer, a nonprofit research group said on Monday.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined 0.3 percent last month, steeper than the 0.2 percent analysts polled by Reuters were expecting. It also fell 0.2 percent in February, which was originally reported as a 0.4 percent drop.
"The recession may continue through the summer, but the intensity will ease," said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, in a statement.
The index has not risen in the last nine months. In September and December it was unchanged and it experienced the largest drop during that period in October, when it fell 1 percent.
Real money supply and the yield spread both showed strength in March, but not enough to counterbalance the drag of building permits, stock prices and supplier deliveries.
Over the last six months, the index has fallen 2.5 percent, compared to the smaller 1.4 percent drop for the previous six months.
"There have been some intermittent signs of improvement in the economy in April, but the leading economic index and most of its components are still pointing down," Goldstein said
World Bank chief sees global economy shrinking in 2009
Reuters News -3-21-2009
The global economy is set to shrink 1 percent to 2 percent this year, Robert B. Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, said Saturday, adding that the depth of the slowdown was unprecedented since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Speaking at a conference in Brussels, Mr. Zoellick referred to an International Monetary Fund forecast that the world economy would shrink 0.5 percent to 1 percent this year.
Mr Zolellick said. "We haven't seen a figure like that globally since World War II, which really means since the Great Depression."
Mr. Zoellick has raised concerns over measures to tackle the crisis, warning of the risk of doing "too little, too late."
He has said that fiscal stimulus not accompanied by efforts to address the roots of the credit crunch will be a mere "sugar high" with no lasting effect on the economy.
Fifteen States Exceed 10% Unemployment
by William M Wright BBA MBA -11-05-09
Fifteen states have unemployment rates in double digits as of September, up from just four in January.
In the Detroit Michigan area unemployment exceeds 21% -depression levels.
The rates for North Carolina and Rhode Island and California were record highs.
Economists had predict the national jobless rate would hit 10% by year's end. And we now stand at 10.2%
STATES WITH RATES OVER 10%
| 37 | GEORGIA | 10.1 |
| 37 | OHIO | 10.1 |
| 39 | ILLINOIS | 10.5 |
| 39 | TENNESSEE | 10.5 |
| 41 | ALABAMA | 10.7 |
| 42 | NORTH CAROLINA | 10.8 |
| 43 | KENTUCKY | 10.9 |
| 44 | FLORIDA | 11.0 |
| 45 | DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | 11.4 |
| 46 | OREGON | 11.5 |
| 47 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 11.6 |
| 48 | CALIFORNIA | 12.2 |
| 49 | RHODE ISLAND | 13.0 |
| 50 | NEVADA | 13.3 |
| 51 | MICHIGAN | 15.3 |
Employers have cut payrolls at the fastest pace in 34 years
by William M Wright BBA MBA
12-01-08 orginal / 04-03-09 update
The U.S. economy appears headed for its deepest and longest recession since World War II as soaring job losses take their toll on consumer confidence and spending.
Employers cut payrolls in Nov 08-March 09 at the fastest pace (since 1974) in 34 years. The unemployment rate now stands at 8.5% percent, the highest level in 25 years. The November 2008 job loss alone was 60% worse than economist forecast.
Economists predict the national jobless rate will have climbed to 9% percent by June 2009. It will probably hit 10 percent before year end even if the recession were to end later this year, they said.
Employers have cut payrolls for twenty two straight months as of Oct. 09
The Labor Department reported in November 2008 that over 4 million laid off workers received government unemployment checks in the week ended Nov. 22, the most since December 1982. U.S. payrolls shrank in November for the 11th straight month, sending the unemployment rate to 6.7 percent. By March 2009 payrolls were reduced for 15 straight months with unemployment rising to 8.5%.
The March 2008 8.5% unemployment rate is the highest in 25 years. The rate is now forecasted to increase to 9-10% (up from an 8% forecast last Nov 08), the highest since the early 1980’s.
The current 8.5% unemployment rate is much worse than it looks.
Preventing the unemployment rate from climbing even more last month was a surge in part-time workers. The number of Americans saying they worked part-time last month due to economic reasons -- either because they needed to work two jobs to live or they couldn’t find full-time jobs -- surged to 7.32 million, the most since records began in 1955. The unemployment figure does not include those who are under employed or who want employment but are no longer counted as unemployed simply because their benefits ran out. Nor does the unemployment rate count the hordes of self-employeed 1099 contractors which rose over the last decade and graduating college students looking for work.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, announced this week that America is in a recession that began in December 2007. At 16-months, the recession is already the longest since the 16-month slump that ended in November 1982.
John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said the November 2008 jobs report suggests that the economy shrank at annual rate of 5 percent in the final three months of the year. That would be the biggest contraction (since 1982) in 36 years.
Retail sales have declined five months in a row
Job losses and a poor economy cause consumers to reduce their spending. The Commerce Department reported retail sales fell in November for the fifth straight monthly decline, the longest losing streak since the government started tracking data in 1992.
U.S. automakers have been particularly hard hit as sales last month dropped to the lowest level in 26 years. The top executives of General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC this week appealed to Congress for as much as $34 billion in government assistance.
The Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research projects that a collapse of GM would lead to job losses totaling 2.5 million, including 1.4 million people in industries not directly tied to manufacturing. Chrysler yesterday announced it had cut 5,000 jobs last week.
Service companies are also slashing staff. AT&T, the largest U.S. phone company, reported it will cut 12,000 jobs, striving to trim expenses as the U.S. economy falters. Citigroup said last month it plans to eliminate 52,000 jobs worldwide.
“Almost all businesses are in survival mode, and they’re slashing payrolls and investments just to conserve cash,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’re in store for some big job losses.”
The employment and spending news is expected to get worse
Job losses are likely to continue mounting into 2009 as the collapse in credit and consumer spending hurts all businesses.
As economic data for last months of 2008 deteriorated, economists at Goldman Group Inc. were among those marking down estimates for gross domestic product and boosting forecasts for unemployment. The economy will shrink at a 5 percent annual rate this quarter and decline at a 3 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, Goldman’s chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note.
Goldman forecasts the jobless rate will climb to 9 percent by late 2009.